John Mearsheimer’s “The Tragedy of Great Power Politics” (2001, updated 2014) is a seminal work in international relations. It offers a comprehensive exposition of his theory of offensive realism. Mearsheimer contends that the global system, characterised by anarchy, compels excellent powers to seek dominance and security, leading inevitably to competition, conflict, and war. The book is a rigorous application of realist theory, demonstrating that pursuing hegemony is a tragic but unavoidable aspect of global politics. Mearsheimer's central thesis is that the structure of the international system forces great powers to behave aggressively. He bases this argument on five core assumptions of offensive realism:
Mearsheimer argues that great powers are driven to seek regional hegemony because of this structure, as the US did in the Western Hemisphere. Once regional dominance is secured, they attempt to prevent other great powers from achieving the same level of dominance in their regions. This pursuit leads to what Mearsheimer calls "the tragedy" of great power politics: while states pursue security through power maximisation, their actions often create insecurity and conflict, even when such outcomes are not desired.
The book supports its theoretical claims with historical examples from Europe, Asia, and the Americas. Mearsheimer analyses the behaviour of great powers like Germany, the US, and the Soviet Union, showing how they consistently sought to maximise their power and prevent rivals from gaining dominance. He emphasises the behaviour of Germany before World War I and II, noting that its aggressive policies were driven by the desire to secure regional hegemony, much like US behaviour in the 19th and 20th centuries.
Mearsheimer also examines post-Cold War US foreign policy, arguing that America's attempts to maintain unipolarity and prevent China's rise reflect the same power-maximizing logic. He suggests rising China will inevitably challenge the US, leading to competition and potential conflict.
The greatest strength of The Tragedy of Great Power Politics is its clear, logically consistent argument. Mearsheimer’s offensive realism builds on classical realism. Still, it adapts it to modern international relations, providing a rigorous framework for understanding why great powers act aggressively even when they would prefer peace. His use of historical case studies offers a compelling demonstration of the explanatory power of offensive realism.
The book also challenges liberal and constructivist theories, emphasising cooperation, norms, and institutions. By highlighting the persistent role of power politics in the modern world, Mearsheimer critiques the overly optimistic assumptions of liberal internationalism, especially in the post-Cold War era.
Despite its clarity, Mearsheimer’s framework has been criticised for being overly deterministic and reductionist. Critics argue that The Tragedy of Great Power Politics downplays the role of domestic politics, ideology, and leadership in shaping state behaviour. For instance, the rise of international institutions and norms, such as those governing trade, human rights, and arms control, contradicts Mearsheimer’s assertion that states only seek power.
Some also contend that Mearsheimer’s focus on military power overlooks the increasing importance of economic and soft power in international relations. The rise of globalisation, interdependence, and non-state actors poses challenges to a purely realist view of global politics. Critics argue that Mearsheimer’s emphasis on state-centric power politics is less applicable in a world where economic competition and transnational issues, like climate change, play more prominent roles.
Additionally, the book's deterministic tone has led some to question whether offensive realism leaves room for peace and cooperation in the international system. While Mearsheimer acknowledges that great powers occasionally cooperate, his pessimistic view of world politics offers few solutions to mitigate the inevitable conflicts he describes.
Despite these criticisms, Mearsheimer’s work remains highly relevant, particularly in light of rising US-China tensions. His predictions about China’s behaviour as it grows stronger have proven prescient, as evidenced by recent geopolitical developments in the South China Sea, trade wars, and military posturing in East Asia. Mearsheimer’s framework provides a valuable lens for understanding why the US and China will likely engage in strategic competition despite deep economic interdependence.
In the context of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Mearsheimer’s realist lens also explains why Russia, a declining power, would seek to maintain its influence over Ukraine, fearing Western encroachment on its borders. His arguments about spheres of influence and excellent power behaviour help illuminate the motivations behind Russia’s aggressive actions, even as many Western commentators express disbelief over the conflict.
The Tragedy of Great Power Politics remains a foundational text in international relations, offering a coherent and persuasive explanation for the behaviour of great powers. Mearsheimer’s offensive realism underscores the tragic nature of global politics, where the pursuit of security leads to conflict and competition. While the book has its critics, particularly those who favour liberal or constructivist theories, it continues to shape discussions on global power dynamics, especially in a world facing new geopolitical challenges. Whether one agrees with Mearsheimer’s pessimistic outlook, his analysis offers a valuable tool for understanding the dark, competitive side of great power politics.
The views expressed in this Insight are of the author(s) alone and do not necessarily reflect the policy of ISSRA/NDU.