Sino-India Relations in The Past Decade

Over the past decade, the Sino-Indian relationship has been a complex interplay of cooperation and conflict. As the two world's most populous nations and fastest-growing economies, China and India have a significant role in the region. Their bilateral relations are marked by economic collaboration, geopolitical rivalry, and cultural exchanges. This insight provides a holistic analysis of their relationship over the past decade and lessons for Pakistan regarding its foreign policy.

In 2020, China's GDP stood at a staggering US$24.27 trillion, securing its position as the world's largest economy, while India's GDP of US$8.97 trillion ranked it third globally. These figures, accounting for 18.3% and 6.8% of the global GDP, respectively, underscore the economic might of these two nations. Their substantial military expenditures, with China at US$252.3 billion and India at US$72.9 billion, further highlight their growing influence on the global stage. This economic and military growth is of particular interest to major powers like the US, which is increasingly challenged by China's rapid ascent. Their bilateral trade in 2022 reached US$136.26 billion, with China’s trade with Pakistan estimated at US$23.79 billion.

Sino-India relations indicate a rapid growth of bilateral trade over the last ten years despite conflicts between both countries. Notably, in 2015, when India and China clashed in Ladakh, the trade volume slightly increased from the preceding 2014 from US$70.59 to US$71.66 billion. Similarly, despite the Galwan clashes of 2020 and a significant military confrontation in the Galwan Valley of the Himalayas, the trade volume in 2021 continued to grow. It reached a record US$125 billion, a 43.3% increase from 2020. In 2022, China emerged as India's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade totalling US$136.26 billion. This development is a testament to the resilience of their economic relations, which seem to maintain stability despite escalating military tensions.

Amidst this complex relationship, it is crucial to note that India's influence in regional geopolitics, boosted by the US as the ‘Net Security Provider’ in the Asia-Pacific region, may eventually become a net destabiliser. The US-led West's active support for India, while enhancing its security, also fuels its ambitions to dominate the region, fostering its pursuit of regional hegemony. India is increasingly asserting its influence through participation in initiatives like the QUAD and Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), which focus on maritime security in the Asia-Pacific region. These initiatives are significant as they allow India to align itself strategically and economically with major powers, challenging China's strategic interests.

Over the past decade, Sino-India diplomatic relations have grown significantly, with high-level visits and numerous agreements. This growth in diplomatic relations is a positive sign of the potential for peace and cooperation. In September 2014, President Xi Jinping's visit to India redefined the bilateral engagement, resulting in 16 agreements spanning various sectors. During Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to China in May 2015, the two governments signed 24 government-to-government agreements, 26 business MoUs, and two joint statements, including one on climate change. 2016 President Pranab Mukherjee visited China, signing ten MoUs in education and research. The first Informal Summit between Modi and Xi in Wuhan in 2018 and the second in Chennai in 2019 aimed to manage differences and deepen cooperation. Since June 2020, the two sides have been discussing disengagement at the border areas along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh through the Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination (WMCC) and Senior Commander's Meetings (SCM), with 25 WMCC meetings held, the latest on 14 October 2022. On 25th March 2022, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi visited India and held discussions with External Affairs Minister and National Security Advisor. On 18th May 2022, the 13th Expert-Level Mechanism (ELM) meeting was held virtually to maintain regular exchanges on cooperation in water resources.

Besides diplomatic relations, cultural exchanges are often regarded as a significant soft power tool. In China, Yoga and Indian movies have become popular attractions. Similarly, Chinese films and cultural exports have also gained traction in the Indian market, further strengthening the cultural ties between the two nations. During the 2nd Sino-India Informal Leadership Summit in October 2019, both sides designated 2020 as the “Year of India-China Cultural and People-to-People Exchanges”, a significant initiative to foster greater understanding and appreciation of each other's cultures.

The relationship between China and India, marked by cooperation and competition, has demonstrated resilience and a capacity for economic growth. Their ability to maintain and expand bilateral trade despite geopolitical tensions highlights a pragmatic approach to foreign policy, where economic interests often take precedence over political disputes. This practical approach has allowed both nations to navigate rivalry and foster mutual financial benefits, offering a hopeful outlook on the potential for regional cooperation.