Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy

In “Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy”, Kishore Mahbubani delivers a thought-provoking, nuanced examination of the ongoing US-China rivalry framed against global geopolitical shifts. Mahbubani, a seasoned Singaporean diplomat and academic, presents a critical analysis of the evolving power dynamics between the world’s two largest economies, focusing on the sustainability of American hegemony and the rise of China as a global superpower. Rather than predicting a clear winner, Mahbubani delves into whether the US and China can coexist without descending into conflict and whether the US’ current trajectory allows it to adapt to a world where China's influence is growing.

Has China Won? is whether the US can maintain its global importance in the face of China’s rise. Mahbubani, drawing on his extensive diplomatic experience, argues that the US has failed to adjust its foreign policy and geopolitical strategies to reflect the reality of China’s ascent. He asserts that America’s post-Cold War assumption of unchallenged global dominance has left it unprepared for a multipolar world. In contrast, China has been methodically and strategically positioning itself to become a significant global player, using economic development, technological innovation, and diplomatic initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative to extend its influence.

Mahbubani does not frame this as a zero-sum contest but rather as a fundamental shift in the global power balance. He challenges the notion that the US should view China's rise as an existential threat, suggesting that the US's anxiety about losing global supremacy could lead to poor strategic decisions, including the possibility of unnecessary conflict.

One of the book's key themes is the contrasting approaches of China and the US in their foreign and domestic policies. Mahbubani critiques the US for clinging to a romantic, ideological approach to global leadership, particularly its promotion of democracy and liberal values, which he argues is increasingly out of sync with the reality of international politics. According to Mahbubani, the US’s moralistic stance alienates many countries in the developing world, which often prioritise economic growth and stability over liberal democratic values.

Conversely, China is portrayed as adopting a more pragmatic, non-ideological approach, focusing primarily on economic development, political stability, and strategic partnerships. Mahbubani highlights that China’s approach—rooted in a long-term vision of global influence—has allowed it to build stronger ties with countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, where the US has historically been less engaged. He points to China’s willingness to work with authoritarian regimes and its avoidance of imposing political conditions on trade and investment as examples of this pragmatic approach.

Mahbubani’s analysis of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is critical to his argument about China’s strategic vision.

He presents the BRI as an ambitious project to extend China’s economic and political influence across multiple continents by building infrastructure, increasing connectivity, and fostering economic partnerships. Mahbubani sees the BRI as symbolic of China’s long-term strategy: a patient, calculated expansion of its influence, often in regions neglected by Western powers.

However, he carefully notes that the BRI is not without its challenges. While it has bolstered China’s influence, it has also drawn criticism for creating debt traps in participating countries and furthering China’s geopolitical ambitions under the guise of development. Mahbubani acknowledges these concerns but argues that, for many developing nations, the benefits of China’s investments outweigh the risks. He contends that China’s focus on economic development, rather than political interference, makes it a more attractive partner for many countries.

Mahbubani is critical of US foreign policy, particularly in the post-9/11 era. He argues that America has overextended itself militarily in the Middle East and other regions, diverting attention and resources from the more critical challenge posed by China. He sees these wars, especially the prolonged engagements in Iraq and Afghanistan, as strategic missteps that have eroded America’s global standing and weakened its economy.

In contrast, China has avoided major military engagements, focusing instead on building its economic and technological strength. Mahbubani points out that China’s leadership has been far more focused on internal development, poverty alleviation, and economic modernisation, allowing it to avoid the pitfalls of military adventurism that have plagued the US.

A central question of the book is whether the US and China can coexist without sliding into conflict. Mahbubani invokes the historical concept of the “Thucydides Trap”—the tendency for rising powers to clash with established ones—and argues that both countries have a choice: either fall into this trap or find a new model of coexistence. He is cautiously optimistic that war is not inevitable but warns that both sides must avoid the miscalculations that have historically led to conflicts between great powers.

Mahbubani stresses that the US must rethink its strategy. Instead of trying to contain or confront China, he advocates for a more realistic and flexible approach that recognises China’s legitimate interests and works toward mutual accommodation. He suggests that the US should focus on strengthening its domestic institutions and economy rather than trying to outcompete China through military or ideological means.

While Mahbubani’s analysis is insightful and grounded in realpolitik, some readers may find his tone too accommodating toward China. Critics have pointed out that Mahbubani tends to downplay China’s human rights abuses, authoritarian governance, and increasingly assertive foreign policy, particularly in the South China Sea. His portrayal of the US as overly idealistic and moralistic could be an oversimplification, given that pragmatic, realist considerations have often driven American foreign policy.

Mahbubani’s suggestion that the US adopt a more flexible, accommodationist stance toward China may not sit well with those who believe that China’s rise represents a genuine threat to global democracy and human rights. His argument that developing countries prefer China’s pragmatic approach to the US’s ideological stance may also be viewed as an overstatement, as many countries continue to value the rule of law, human rights, and democratic governance.

Has China Won? is a well-researched and thought-provoking book that challenges conventional Western thinking about the US-China rivalry. Kishore Mahbubani offers a nuanced and often critical view of American foreign policy while presenting China’s rise as a natural, perhaps inevitable, consequence of global shifts in power. While some may take issue with his accommodationist tone toward China, Mahbubani’s call for reassessing US strategy is timely and necessary. Rather than focusing on confrontation, Mahbubani argues that the US and China must find a way to coexist in a multipolar world, and his book offers valuable insights into how that might be possible.