Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap?

In “Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap?” Graham Allison explores one of our time's most pressing geopolitical dilemmas: the growing rivalry between the United States (US) and China and the increasing likelihood of conflict. Using a blend of history, international relations theory, and contemporary analysis, Allison argues that the two global powers are heading toward the "Thucydides Trap."

Named after the ancient Greek historian Thucydides, this concept refers to the dangerous dynamic that arises when a rising power threatens to displace an established one, often leading to war. Allison's work is not merely a historical examination but a clarion call for awareness and proactive diplomacy, as he warns that avoiding such a catastrophic outcome will require extraordinary efforts from both Washington and Beijing.

Allison’s book is deeply rooted in historical analysis, particularly his reliance on Thucydides’ famous observation regarding the Peloponnesian War: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” This thesis serves as the framework for Allison’s exploration of the current US-China rivalry. He examines 16 historical cases over the past 500 years where a rising power challenged an existing dominant power. Alarmingly, in 12 of these cases, war was the outcome. Allison demonstrates that fear, misunderstanding, and escalation can lead even well-meaning states into destructive conflict, suggesting that the US and China may be heading down a similarly dangerous path.

One of the book’s strengths is how it emphasises that the Thucydides Trap is not deterministic. Allison doesn’t claim that war between the US and China is inevitable, but he argues that the historical record shows a clear pattern of heightened risk. What makes Allison's analysis especially compelling is his nuanced approach to history. He acknowledges that not every situation is identical, but the core dynamic—fear and insecurity driving nations toward conflict—is universal.

Allison skillfully draws parallels between past power transitions and the current geopolitical situation between the US and China. The most striking contemporary analogy is the Cold War between the US and the Soviet Union. Like the US and the Soviet Union, America and China are locked in an ideological, economic, and military rivalry with global implications. However, Allison argues that the US-China rivalry is more dangerous in some respects because of the level of economic interdependence between the two nations.

Despite its dangers, the Cold War occurred in a bifurcated world where the financial systems of the US and Soviet Union were relatively isolated. In contrast, the US and China are deeply intertwined economically, creating a buffer against and a potential accelerant for conflict.

Allison’s assessment of China’s rise is particularly insightful. He traces the country’s rapid economic ascent from the late 20th century and notes that China’s leadership has long sought to restore what they view as their rightful place at the top of the global hierarchy. Allison emphasises that Chinese President Xi Jinping has overseen a dramatic consolidation of power, positioning himself as the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. Under Xi, China has expanded its global influence through the Belt and Road Initiative, military modernisation, and assertive territorial claims in the South China Sea. For Allison, these moves signal China’s increasing willingness to challenge the existing US-led global order.

The book also highlights the fear and anxiety felt by the US in response to China’s rise. From Washington’s perspective, China’s growing economic and military power threatens American preeminence. This is exacerbated by the ideological differences between the two countries, with the US championing liberal democracy and China pursuing authoritarianism. Allison argues that this mix of strategic, economic, and ideological competition creates a volatile situation, with the potential for even minor misunderstandings to spiral into more significant conflicts.

While the historical record of rising powers is bleak, Allison offers hope by examining the cases where conflict was avoided. He points to instances such as the peaceful transition of power between the United Kingdom and the US in the late 19th and early 20th Centuries, which provides a model for how the US and China could navigate their current rivalry without resorting to war.

Allison suggests several lessons that can be drawn from these peaceful transitions. First, leadership on both sides must recognise the risks and commit to managing them. Diplomatic channels must be kept open at all costs, and both countries must be willing to make painful compromises to avoid escalating tensions. Recognising mutual vulnerability and potentially catastrophic consequences should drive both powers to seek creative solutions to their differences.

Second, Allison advocates for the importance of strategic patience. The US and China need to avoid zero-sum thinking and understand that a period of rivalry does not have to end in conflict. The two powers can build trust and cooperation while maintaining their competitive posture by focusing on areas of mutual interest—trade, climate change, and regional security.

Despite its many strengths, ‘Destined for War’ is not without its criticisms. Some readers may find Allison’s historical analogies overly deterministic, even as he cautions that history is not fate. The Thucydides Trap, while a powerful lens through which to view US-China relations, may not fully account for the complexities of the modern international system, including the role of nuclear deterrence, economic globalisation, and multilateral institutions. Some argue that these factors could significantly reduce the likelihood of a full-scale war between the two superpowers.

Additionally, while Allison does well in describing the potential pathways to peace, his solutions often feel vague and aspirational. The recommendations for how the US and China can avoid conflict rely heavily on political will and leadership, which can be challenging to predict or ensure. Given the increasingly nationalistic rhetoric from both Beijing and Washington, the prospects for mutual understanding and compromise seem dim.

Destined for War is a thought-provoking and timely analysis of the US-China relationship and the dangers of the Thucydides Trap. Graham Allison provides a sobering reminder that history is filled with examples of rising powers clashing with established ones, often with catastrophic consequences. However, he also offers a glimmer of hope, arguing that war is not inevitable if both sides recognise the risks and commit to finding peaceful solutions. For policymakers, scholars, and citizens concerned about the future of global order, this book serves as both a warning and a guide to navigating one of the most consequential relationships of the 21st Century.