It has been more than two months since the fateful attack by the Palestinian Hamas fighters against Israel on 7th October 2023. During this time, the western narrative has seen a few changes. Initially, it termed Hamas’ action as an act of terrorism and justified the disproportionate Israeli response. As the reality started setting in, the Western audience learnt about the Israeli state terrorism resulting into some large scale pro-Palestinian demonstrations around major cities of the world. In contrast, there were few pro-Israeli demonstrations.
As a result of this ‘out of the blue’ conflict in Gaza; the Western media has almost forgotten the ongoing Russo-Ukraine conflict. For some, it is simply a case where an emerging conflict has attained more media space. For others, it may not be as simple as it appears since coincidences are not very common in geo-politics. Based upon analysis of open-source information; there are three to four possible explanations for the genesis of recent Israel-Palestine conflict in Gaza.
According to the first explanation, Hamas was preparing for this action for a very long time and on 7th October 2023, it was able to achieve a military surprise. Resultantly, it not only inflicted heavy civilian and military casualties, but also captured hundreds of Israeli hostages. In response, Israel unleashed its full military might against the hapless Palestinians in Gaza and did not even spare women and children in its vengeance. The carnage continues even today. Let’s analyse this explanation and try to answer a few very basic questions.
What was Hamas thinking while conducting the 7th October attack or what has Hamas gained, in cost benefit analysis, through its actions? One answer could be that Hamas did not think through the consequences of its actions. Another plausible answer could be that Hamas did not expect Israel to retaliate in such a ferocious manner. Yet another answer could be that despite knowing the scale of Israel’s potential retaliation; Hamas went ahead with its attack as it wanted to bring Palestinian issue to the world stage, once again.
All these answers appear logical but probably too simplistic. These answers suggest Hamas to be so naïve that it thought it could get away with its actions without many consequences. Given the history of Israel-Palestine conflict, and especially after Israel-Hezbollah War of 2006; it would be unrealistic to assume that Hamas underestimated the extent of possible Israeli reaction against its attack. Hamas launched this attack without any groundwork as nobody even in the West Bank, or Hezbollah in Lebanon or any other country knew anything about this attack beforehand.
According to the second explanation, China played a “Master Counterstroke” against the US backed Israeli-Saudi rapprochement, where it encouraged Iran to utilise Hamas as a proxy to carry out attacks against Israel. This demonstrates Chinese desire to play a more active role in the Middle East (ME) especially after successfully negotiating Iran-Saudi rapprochement. Moreover, as the US gets embroiled in the ME; it would serve larger geo-strategic interests of China and Russia by keeping US’ attention away from Taiwan and Ukraine issues, respectively. In another explanation, Iran may have acted independently with tacit support of China and Russia, for the same ends as given above. Let’s analyse this explanation and try to answer a few very basic questions.
Whereas the Hamas action has potentially delayed the process of possible Israel-Saudi rapprochement for some time; one of the biggest arguments against second explanation is the improbability of failure of the Israeli Intelligence to detect Hamas’ attack preparations which would have been ongoing for months, if not years. Moreover, given the amount of firsthand intelligence that Israel possesses inside Gaza, West Bank and around the region; it appears incredulous that Israel remained unaware of the impending threat. Contrarily, now there are media reports suggesting that Israeli Intelligence knew about the impending threat for more than a year but did not give much importance to it. Secondly, as Palestinians get persecuted in Gaza by the Israeli military; it would potentially dent Iran’s credibility in the eyes of the Palestinians for failing to support Hamas, its so-called proxy.
In past few months, China had initiated its own peace process for the settlement of Israel-Palestine Issue. Moreover, considering Chinese dependence on oil imports from gulf countries and success of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in the region, it would be in China’s interest to maintain peace and stability in the ME rather than disturbing it, deliberately.
However, if second explanation is true then, in coming days, China along with Russia and Iran is likely to play a bigger role in this geo-political circus. In this case, the Israel-Palestine conflict in Gaza might get enlarged with the possibility of Iran jumping into the fray. There would be more unity among the Arab and the Muslim world against US-Israel nexus and, by effect, enhancing the prospects of Iran-Saudi rapprochement. Contrarily, chances of US led Israel-Saudi rapprochement would be very bleak. As a result, it would be very difficult for Netanyahu and Republicans to win next elections in Israel and the US, respectively.
According to the third explanation, situation in Gaza is a “Grand Strategic Distraction” masterminded by the US-Israel nexus to deliberately divert attention of the Western public opinion from the Russo-Ukraine conflict as the latter starts moving towards its logical conclusion. As the winter sets in Europe yet again, and as the Russo-Ukraine conflict enters its third year and the failure of much trumpeted Ukrainian counter-offensive; it appears that the US led Western stamina to support Ukraine in its fight against Russia, any further, is waning fast. By now, it is getting clear that Russia has won the military conflict in Ukraine.
However, at the grand strategic level, perhaps the US finds itself in a much more advantageous position vis-à-vis Russia, considering that now France and Germany have much bigger issues to handle than attempting to redraw European security architecture. It implies that NATO is reborn with a renewed sense of purpose. European economy is in trouble along with birth of political and social polarization due to issues like refugees, migration, islamophobia, inflation, higher energy prices, defence expenditures, etc. China-EU relations have also been dented for the benefit of the US.
Therefore, another major conflict in another part of the world is a classic diversion to take the attention of Western audience away from the ‘military defeat’ in Ukraine to a ‘humanitarian crisis’ in Gaza, which may also explain the unprecedented ‘gory’ images and stories in the Western media. Israel is playing havoc with the lives of poor Palestinians with impunity and with full support of the US led West. The US veto in the United Nations Security Council against ceasefire in Gaza is the prime example of this complicity. Under these circumstances, the incredulous failure of CIA-Mossad, for not knowing about the impending Hamas attack, or conversely, reports about their knowledge of the threat for one year suddenly starts making great sense. Similarly, reports of alleged historical connections between Hamas-Qatar-Israel-US may also be seen in the same context.
If in coming months, the US led West can downplay its military defeat in Russo-Ukraine conflict behind the cover of Israel-Palestine conflict in Gaza; then it would be safe to assume that the third explanation made more sense. Similarly, if third explanation is true then Israel-Palestine conflict in Gaza would remain restricted and Iran may not jump into it. Interestingly, one can clearly see the mitigating strategy in place as US increases its military presence in the region and refrains from directly implicating Iran into the conflict.
Moreover, the third explanation would also make more sense if, in coming days, the ‘humanitarian issue’ in Gaza takes center stage with US acting as the ‘Power Broker’ trying to bring Palestinians and Israelis on table along with, perhaps, the Saudis. In this case, possibility of Israel-Saudi rapprochement in not so distant future would also be restored.
Notwithstanding the outcome, the biggest victims of the conflict are the Palestinians in Gaza. The world, especially the West, has witnessed and contributed towards their plight with ‘utter insensitivity’. It is perhaps, for the first time in recent history that the powerful nations have also put aside, the so-called façade of morality which they would, otherwise, take great pride in (though, soon they might return to it). But such an attitude and hubris against the weak may lead towards some adverse ‘unintended consequences’ for the powerful perpetrators of violence as there are always ‘unknown unknowns’ ready to restore the balance of nature.
The views expressed in this Insight are of the author(s) alone and do not necessarily reflect the policy of NDU.